OFFSEASON POWER RANKINGS
Less than a month from spring training and with football winding down, it’s time to start preparations for weary fantasy baseball owners to gradually emerge from their sweaty and disgusting winter hovels with the most cheaply made and subjective content I can create. POWER RANKINGS.
But hold up right there, dear reader. Take your eyeballs and un-roll them, as I have worked hard to take the opinion out of this opinion article. Yes I know how little we value the thoughts of our fellow owners, so rather than blithely throw thunderbolts down at everyone’s carefully (or in some cases not so carefully) crafted rosters, I instead came up with a statistical criteria for judgment so everyone can take their measured takes and apply their hatred to math and not to me. I’m sure that’ll work swell.
Here is how this will work. I have gone through each team’s roster and picked the six players which are most likely to be kept. In some cases I could work off of publicly accessible information and in some I had to make some assumptions. In all cases I did my best to pick the players that were MOST LIKELY to be kept while balancing that with my own subjective view of which players were most deserving. There may be some room for disagreement here but hopefully it’s along the margins and doesn’t impact the total numbers that much.
Once I had those six players, I calculated the Average ADP for any kept player on that team based on the current NFBC rankings. I also calculated the difference in round value between every kept player and what round they were actually being drafted in current NFBC drafts. For example, Patrick will be keeping Gunnar Henderson in the 16th round, and he is being drafted on average in the 2nd round of NFBC drafts. This means that Patrick accrues 14 rounds of value from that keeper. I added up the total “value number” for each team’s slate of keepers.
This criteria is based on my own belief that keeper slates can and should be evaluated in two ways: How good are the players who are being kept, and how much value do they generate based on their round value. By calculating and weighting both equally, I give value to both without overvaluing either.
One final measure which I calculated to use as a tie-breaker was what I call “Blue Chip Keepers”. Blue Chip Keepers are players who are top 50 in ADP but also have a round value of at least 100 picks. Using Gunnar Henderson as an example again, his average ADP is 15th overall, and because he is being kept in the 16th round, he generates over 100 picks of value. This makes him a Blue Chip Keeper. This number was used as a tiebreaker if two teams ended up having the same score at the end of this exercise. The most blue chip keepers a team had was three, and four teams had none.
Also for the purposes of this UNBIASED AND OBJECTIVE EXERCISE, I ignored draft picks that were traded to or from owners since I couldn’t figure out a fair way to weight that. You all can sort that out yourselves. This exercise is based on players only because as a wise man once said, “The draft doesn’t matter”. Conditional keepers were also ignored to keep the statistics fair.
Now, I’m sure everyone read through that carefully and won’t have skipped ahead. No one would ever skip the opening context. With that out of the way let’s dive in.
#1 patrick weaver
avg adp rank: 1 (43)
total value rank: 3 (+82 rounds of value)
blue cHIP KEEPERS: 2
keepers:
GUNNAR HENDERSON (16) BLUE CHIP
CORBIN CARROLL (17) BLUE CHIP
AARON JUDGE (1)
COLE RAGANS (21)
CAM SCHLITTLER (FA)
ROMAN ANTHONY (FA)
Patrick came away with the best slate of keepers by a fair margin. He is the only owner to rank in the top 3 of both categories and both Anthony and Ragans were within five ADP spots of being considered blue chip prospects themselves. Schlittler was the only keeper who ranked outside of the top 60, and three of Pat’s keepers ranked inside the top 15. It’s a mix of pitching and hitting with speed, power, youth, and proven veterans. It’s indisputably the best slate of players being kept.
From a subjective point of view, Ragans and Henderson have injury concerns, but whose slate of keepers doesn’t? If Anthony can take the next step towards stardom and Judge can continue to be the best hitter in the sport, there is no ceiling too high for the team as it currently stands.
#2 andrew heller
avg adp rank: 3 (45)
total value rank: 4 (+81 rounds of value)
blue chip keepers: 3
keepers:
JAMES WOOD (24) BLUE CHIP
PAUL SKENES (24) BLUE CHIP
JACOB DEGROM (23) BLUE CHIP
CJ ABRAMS (9)
TREA TURNER (1)
CHASE BURNS (FA)
What an amazing top three. Heller now possesses one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball and has coupled him with the reinvigorated Jacob Degrom, a couple of all star shortstops, and Spencer Strider Lite (the good version). There are questions about which James Wood is the real one, the great one from the first half or the dud from the second. Trea Turner in the first is also a questionable choice, but the biggest plus here is the draft flexibility. Heller only has two keepers being kept in the first 22 rounds of the draft. That, plus the fact that only one of his keepers ranks outside of the top 50 in ADP makes this a slam dunk list of amazing players which positions Heller to enter the draft as a strong competitor.
#3 dan topczewski
AVG ADP RANK: 2 (44)
TOTAL VALUE RANK: 5 (+53 ROUNDS OF VALUE)
BLUE CHIP KEEPERS: 1
KEEPERS:
KYLE TUCKER (1)
JACKSON CHOURIO (21) BLUE CHIP
RONALD ACUNA (2)
GERALDO PERDOMO (FA)
BRYCE TURANG (11)
JESUS LUZARDO (17)
Chourio and Perdomo highlight this list with their outstanding value, but this is another case of a team which combines proven star value at the higher rounds (Tucker and Acuna), with value monsters like Chourio, Perdomo, and to a lesser extent Luzardo (10 round value). This team is a little light on the pitching and having the first two rounds spoken for is spicy, but even with the rules change this year pitching is always less valuable than hitting. There is a decent chance that Tucker, Chourio, and Acuna are all top 10 overall players at the end of the year, so you can’t argue with that.
Oh yeah, the fact that Dan traded away his third and fourth round picks for Chourio? We are going to ignore that for this exercise because context is subjective and you all don’t want my opinion anyway. Plus, say it with me, “THE DRAFT DOESN’T MATTER”
#4 richard martindell jr
avg adp rank: 8 (74)
total value rank: 2 (+92 rounds of value)
blue chip keepers: 2
keepers:
JUNIOR CAMINERO (24) BLUE CHIP
ELLY DE LA CRUZ (18) BLUE CHIP
JACKSON MERRILL (23)
JORDAN WESTBURG (15)
JACOB MISIOROWSKI (FA)
NOLAN MCLEAN (FA)
I love Caminero and Elly paired together. Power and speed in perfect balance, as all things should be. Assuming Caminero doesn’t stop hitting homers when the Rays move back into a major league park and Elly doesn’t hurt his quad again, that’s a very sound 1-2 punch. There is a lot of youth and questions rounding out this list; Misiorowski could end up a bullpen arm, Merrill had a big fall-off last season, etc. That is reflected in the AVG ADP not being in the top half of the league, but Richard makes up for that with outstanding value. Richard doesn’t have a single draft pick taken by a keeper in the top 17 rounds, so even though this is a young list he can easily supplement it with more reliable veterans in the opening rounds of the draft.
This team could also use an ace, but I avoided weighting makeup between bats and pitchers in these rankings because my opinion means nothing.
#5 michael staron
avg adp rank: 5 (56)
total value rank: 6 (+52 rounds of value)
blue chip keepers: 2
keepers:
CAL RALEIGH (6)
TARIK SKUBAL (20) BLUE CHIP
HUNTER BROWN (8)
SPENCER STRIDER (15)
ZACH NETO (18) BLUE CHIP
TREY YESAVAGE (FA)
Zach Neto being a blue chip keeper is so weird, but he had a huge year last year and is being rewarded with a top 30 overall ADP in NFBC so who am I to judge? Skubal and Raleigh are the real gems here, the hammer and anvil of a successfully balanced team. The team is a little heavy on pitching, with only Raleigh and Neto swinging lumber, but it’s always possible that Mike decides to throw back Yesavage in favor of another bat or makes a corresponding move. Strider here could subjectively be considered a mistake, but objectively he provides 6 rounds of value to the squad, so who am I to question numbers?
With Skubal and Brown leading the pack, Mike will likely follow his consistent pattern of success (a dominating staff), and likewise without committing any of his first five draft picks to keepers he has a lot of draft flexibility early on (not that the draft matters or anything)
#6 jonathan sitko
avg adp rank: 10 (88)
total value rank: 1 (+93 rounds of value)
blue chip keepers: 2
keepers:
NICK KURTZ (FA) BLUE CHIP
BEN RICE (FA)
KYLE STOWERS (FA)
WYATT LANGFORD (21) BLUE CHIP
ONEIL CRUZ (17)
JASSON DOMINGUEZ (24)
Oh this is absolutely fascinating. Jon set the record with the most significant difference between his two scores (9 spots), showing the now trademarked way that he builds his teams (UPSIDE BABY). Aside from the obvious Kurtz at the top of the list, this roster is filled with fantasy breakout darlings. Stowers and Rice are at the top of most writers’ “LOVE” lists, and Langford continues to hang around as a player I can’t believe is valued as highly as he is (ADP 47). Dominguez and Cruz have true bottom out potential here, but as they stand they command 9 and 7 round values respectively.
Jon has the first 16 rounds of his draft open for picks, so he has plenty of opportunity to supplement the young guns with proven vets. His roster is truly the antithesis of the next owner, in that it prioritizes value over “name on the back of the jersey” types. So if that’s your style, you love his team. If not, you may go for the next one.
#7 ian shaw
avg adp rank: 4 (48)
total value rank: 9 (+47 rounds of value)
blue chip keepers: 1
keepers:
JULIO RODRIGUEZ (12) BLUE CHIP
KETEL MARTE (6)
YORDAN ALVAREZ (5)
CRISTOPHER SANCHEZ (8)
DRAKE BALDWIN (FA)
MICHAEL HARRIS II (17)
Ah what could have been. If Cole Ragans was still on this team it would probably have ranked several spots higher, but alas here’s where we are (hoping Travis Bazzana was worth it). Believe it or not I feel that I have tamped down some of the worst instincts of my “star hunting” that I typically engage in with roster construction. Be that as it may though, three of my top 10 picks are spoken for with keepers, and Harris is an uninspiring way to round things out (though Sheehan is also a possibility). If you compare this roster construction with Jon, it definitely shows a more restrictive style which limits draft flexibility in favor of “known quantities”. If you want to psychoanalyze us it probably means Jon has more faith in his ability to think on the fly compared to me. If you want to psychoanalyze further it probably means he got more hugs as a child.
Objectively, of course.
#8 joey mcdermott
avg adp rank: 6 (64)
total value rank: 7 (+51 rounds of value)
blue chip keepers: 0
keepers:
BOBBY WITT JR (1)
PETE CROW ARMSTRONG (9)
BRENT ROOKER (14)
SPENCER SCHWELLENBACH (24)
LOGAN WEBB (12)
SAMUEL BASALLO (FA)
Here’s a fun fact. Of the four teams with zero Blue Chip Keepers, every single one of them ranked in the bottom 5 of the league in this exercise. Maybe it seems obvious that that would happen, “OH YEAH IAN, GOOD PLAYERS AT LOW ROUNDS HELP PEOPLE, WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT!”, but the strength of the correlation was still jarring.
Witt is the clear anchor here, and then things get slightly muddy with PCA’s questionable second half, Schwellenbach returning from injury, and Basallo having playing time concerns. Still though, Joey comes into this year with maybe the most established group of keepers that he’s had in several seasons.
Unless he decides to throw back Witt in favor of Harper…
#9 vinson mulvey
avg adp rank: 7 (74)
total value rank: 8 (+47 rounds of value)
blue chip keepers: 0
keepers:
BRYAN WOO (7)
BYRON BUXTON (11)
KYLE BRADISH (FA)
SEIYA SUZUKI (12)
TREVOR STORY (18)
SHEA LANGELIERS (13)
This is the list I feel least confident about simply because Vinson has been a moving target this offseason and hasn’t projected who he intends to keep, if anyone. Does Vlad get kept? Probably not with Vinson picking in the first half of the first round, but who knows? Vinson has been very active and has projected a willingness to continue to trade from and into his pool of players, so expect this one to change because nothing (except maybe Woo) appears to be nailed down.
What does seem clear is that this is the weakest that Mulvey’s slate of keepers has been since his first season in the league. If we can’t keep him out of the champions circle this year then it’s probably more a referendum on how bad we all are more than anything.
#10 brooke weaver
avg adp rank : 9 (77)
total value rank: 10 (+32 rounds of value)
blue chip keepers: 1
keepers:
SHOHEI OHTANI (1)
GARRETT CROCHET (21) BLUE CHIP
GEORGE SPRINGER (10)
BUBBA CHANDLER (FA)
CEDDANNE RAFAELA (14)
WILLIAM CONTRERAS (2)
Let me be clear. I know that Chandler may start the year in the minors, and I don’t advocate for Rafaela or Contreras being kept, but Brooke hasn’t telegraphed her thinking on the matter and I didn’t know what other options there were. Crochet and Ohtani are, of course, the real prizes here. When you have potentially the best hitter and the best pitcher on your team nothing is impossible. Springer had a renaissance season but it’s unlikely he can repeat (but the 10th round is pretty low risk). Outside that is where things get dicey fast, so things would look a lot more ship shape if Brooke could trade for another player or two to round out the back end of the list.
Brooke is also the last team with a blue chip prospect on this list. Strap in everyone because the last two aren’t pretty.
#11 mark johnson
avg adp rank: 11 (87)
total value rank: 11 (+22 rounds of value)
blue chip keepers: 0
keepers:
JOSE RAMIREZ (1)
JACKSON HOLLIDAY (23)
KYLE SCHWARBER (2)
BO BICHETTE (5)
SONNY GRAY (11)
JO ADELL (FA)
Wakey Wakey Mark, the Jaguars are done and your fantasy team needs attention.
If I’m speaking completely honestly, I like this team less than the one that comes next. Mark is in a brutal position of having 3 of his top five rounds blocked by keepers. He could throw back Ramirez to gain another spot, but even if he did there is almost no one on his team worthy of the honor (feel free to look, I’ve tried). What’s worse, Holliday and Adell are the only players on this list that generate positive value, and Bichette actually generates -4 rounds of value, but I just couldn’t think of anyone else to keep.
It’s a tough spot after a vicious campaign to try to lock down a title, but Holliday, Gray, and Adell are abysmal options to try to generate upside when all of the air in the room is being sucked out by the top keepers on the roster. With this list, Mark won’t pick until pick 27. Will he be forced to pick a pitcher to anchor a staff that currently has no ace? Will he try to supplement his power with speed?
It’s going to be a draft of catch-up, but don’t worry Mark, you have company…
#12 james swindell
avg adp rank: 12 (88)
total value rank: 12 (+21 rounds of value)
blue chip keepers: 0
keepers:
PETE ALONSO (6)
JUAN SOTO (1)
HUNTER GREENE (4)
MAIKEL GARCIA (FA)
JACOB WILSON (24)
MACKENZIE GORE (16)
I won’t sugarcoat it. It’s rough folks. I truly feel bad for James since he did what I would have done, which is sell out hard for the chance at a title. Things just didn’t go his way and now the toll is due. Only three players on this list generate positive value relative to their keeper spots (Alonso, Garcia, and Wilson). It’s just a very top heavy list which is not balanced out with value on the back-end. Gore, Garcia, and Wilson all have significant questions about their long term viability and probably wouldn’t qualify as keepers on half the teams in the league. Soto, Greene, and Alonso all having values in the top 6 rounds stings immensely.
It’s not an impossible road to hoe, but this is the cost of selling for a title and failing to climb to the top of the mountain.
